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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | July 28, 2011 - 6:47 pm

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Too little, too soon. Wednesday’s gap up had peaked upon filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close. This natural resistance didn’t offer a good base for the overnight attempt to extend higher, so Thursday’s opening gap up was retraced. The gap below at Tuesday’s close can now attract price back down, whether to hold a test of Tuesday’s lows, or to resume the decline targeting 73.00 (+/- 0.05).

Gold Aug (GCQ) Any optimists left? Yet another opening surge above 1620.00 was retraced into negative territory, this time nearly filling the gap back to Friday’s close under 1603.00. Excessive optimism prevented it from being filled before bouncing into the close. Closing under 1602.00 would now signal a new downleg underway. Closing above 1620.00 would be bullish, possibly extending up to 1650.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Size doesn’t matter. Despite probing the 125’28 buy signal immediately Thursday, the balance of the session essentially ranged narrowly just above 126’00. That doesn’t undermine the quality of the breakout, except to make it easier to reject by closing back under 125’28 Friday. Otherwise, extending higher would confirm 127’24 is in-play.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Taking a little too long to get short. Wednesday’s dip back to the 97’35 sell signal was probed occasionally intraday Thursday, but never broke lower. An actual break lower would now be credible following another momentary blip-up. Breaking lower immediately Friday would be as credible as it is forcible – dipping only slightly at this stage probably won’t gain traction like it could have Wednesday or Thursday.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Punishing weakness. Not greeting Thursday’s EIA report from above 4.42-4.43 left the pattern vulnerable. Its negative reaction plunged to 4.23, filling another outstanding gap below. Now a close above 4.30 would be bullish. There is otherwise no buy signal.

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Posted in Daily Spot