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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | August 1, 2011 - 4:24 pm

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Dollar stakes out both sides. Monday’s 73.75 low was recovered to close back above 74.15. Closing under 74.15 Friday had signaled the decline’s resumption. Touching 73.75 did not end fulfill it. Unless the decline were extending down obviously on Tuesday, then sellers will have lost traction – at least to delay the decline until another distribution pattern could form.

Gold Aug (GCQ) Buy signal not confirmed. Friday’s close above 1620.00 had put into play 1650.00. The signal needed confirmation from a second consecutive higher close. Monday’s reaction to the weekend’s debt deal triggered a gap down back under 1620.00, which was still being tested through the close. Without the buy signal’s immediate confirmation, a pullback has room down to 1602.00-1603.00 before a bigger downleg could gain traction.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Lifting another ceiling. A wobbly start to the debt deal’s reaction was recovered to extend the rally that triggered Thursday above 125’28. The 129’00 resistance was tested, the only calculable resistance to fulfilling the 130’08 target. Despite testing resistance up to 129’09, 129’00 was still being tested at the close. Pullbacks must now hold 128’06 as support to maintain the rally’s momentum.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Lightning fast. The 97.35 sell signal finally broke lower Friday, but didn’t extend intraday, further suggesting that sellers were not gaining traction for their efforts. Monday’s opening strength was appropriate, gapping up back above 97.35 and extending higher to 98.60. Without waiting for Tuesday, the corrective bounce already ended, and slid intraday down to 93.60. The pit close was under Friday’s low, to give the decline a benefit of the doubt. But post-close action tried to recover into Friday’s range. Closing above 97.35 could become bullish.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) A little too soon to bottom. Monday’s gap up was an impatient rally attempt, leaving outstanding the gap back to Friday’s close. A dip did fill the gap, which held as support. Recovering from a fresh low Tuesday to close positive would rob sellers of their traction, and avoid extending the decline to fresh lows.

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