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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes... Also, Tuesday’s Market Wrap recording link was incorrect. It can be played here.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Like moths to a flame? The premature bounce extended to fresh highs at 74.91 Tuesday morning. But the 74.55-74.60 prior highs were still being tested through the afternoon.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Back to square-one. Friday’s close above the 1622.00 buy signal wasn’t confirmed Monday by a higher close. Tuesday’s open gapped up anyway, above Friday’s 1637.50 prior high, and extended higher to attack the breakout’s 1652.00 target intraday up to 1646.80, and after the close up to 1664.50. Closing Wednesday above 1652.00 would put into play the next higher targets at 1682.00 and 1699.00. Closing under 1627.00 would reverse momentum down sharply.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Goodbye default, hello Employment reports. The 125’28 breakout has yet to correct, and barely consolidated Monday. But its 130’08 target was met Tuesday. And exceeded, up to 131’04. There is potential to higher targets at 132’04 and 132’18, so long as pullbacks now hold 129’12 as support. But that’s not very close to present levels, especially for a rally leg that has gained over 5 points in as four days. Especially ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Inching down to a big support. Tuesday’s lower close once again extended the drop underway from last week’s probe above 100.00. And Tuesday’s close once again barely extended under the prior day’s low. Monday’s 93.42 low had recovered to close above 95.00. Tuesday’s multi-dollar dip to 93.20 expended a lot of selling pressure with nominal effect. Regardless, this leg’s long-standing objective has been to probe under 91.00. Simply probing under 92.00 could suffice for completing a major bottom.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Skipping a bottom. Tuesday’s retest of Friday’s low was not deep enough to earn confidence that a bottom is in. Closing Wednesday above 4.20 would suffice. Otherwise, a probe under 4.12 that closes back above 4.15 would help to trap shorts ahead of Thursday’s EIA report.

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