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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s pullback to 1.1485 reacted up Friday to test 1.1520, whose recovery would start to signal the rally had resumed.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s weakness stopped short of touching “lower prior highs” down to at least 1317.00 that must be tested before a bounce can neutralize the attraction back up to the 1328.30 gap up that wants to be retested. Its test wouldn’t necessarily form a top, but r\Resuming the rally prematurely won’t be reliable for extending higher.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
“Lower prior highs” at 15.97 were tested Friday, so that any reaction up to the 16.13 gap can neutralize its attraction above.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Trending back down intraday Friday retraced all of Thursday’s post-open rally, into the gap back to Wednesday’s close and holding its room for noise down to 145-28. The rally cannot afford to delay resuming.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s intraday reversal down into negative territory from the morning’s fresh recovery highs was retraced entirely Friday to suggest a four-day setup is forming. Its fourth day in the sequence is Monday, and probing fresh highs intraday would be unlikely to hold through the close. So, closing higher anyway would be very bullish.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already extending lower Thursday after having greeted the EIA report with essentially a position of weakness, Friday extended the decline to lower lows. Fresh lows into the weekend in this market tend to probe lower on Monday at some point, regardless of the close.