Daily Spot

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Almost sitting this one out. The premature rally was rejected again Wednesday, by gapping down back under Tuesday’s lows. The balance of the session only ranged sideways, and repeatedly held tests of 74.15 support, whose break would resume the decline.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Sky’s the limit. Limit met. Tuesday’s post-close new highs at 1675.90 did not extend higher overnight or Wednesday. In fact, Wednesday’s high was 1674.60. An Island reversal would form from gapping down Thursday under 1643.50. But the rally remains intact without a close under 1652.00, now having potential  to 1696.00.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) No rating cut. We get it, already. Wednesday’s 132’08 tested the rally’s 132’04 target, then dipped under the prior day’s highs. Closing Thursday under Wednesday afternoon’s 130’26 low – after probing Wednesday’s high up to 132’12 – would be likely to react down sharply on Friday’s Employment Situation report. Just closing Thursday without yet correcting to at least 129’12 would be vulnerable to finding any good news already discounted fully.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Room for a bottom, but not necessarily time. Thursday’s low probed well under the 92.00 objective. This would suffice to form a durable bottom, with momentum reversing up on a close above 93.35. Otherwise, closing under 91.30 would next target 89.15.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Position of weakness. Wednesday finally printed a fresh low, but it wasn’t recovered to form a bottom. Instead, it spiked down to test July’s 4.07 low. Its precise low. Hesitating here suggests buyers are impatient, which suggests that any favorable reaction to Thursday’s EIA report would be a short-entry opportunity.

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