Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Not buying it. Wednesday’s ineffectual pessimism was recovered by gapping up sharply Thursday. Its initial objective at 75.48 was attacked into the afternoon. Its next higher objective at 76.05 is in-play, too, so long as pullbacks hold 75.15. Regardless, this is not a durable rally, and the decline’s eventual resumption will still target 73.00.
Gold Dec (GCZ) New highs. Quickly, take a picture. Thursday’s session followed the bearish path of probing Tuesday’s post-close ~1676.00 high (up to ~1685.00), and then reversing down to close negative (under ~1662.00). The downleg actually filled the gap back to Tuesday’s ~1645.00 close, which held, robbing sellers of their traction. While a bearish top is forming, a retest and rejection of 1669.40 should occur before momentum can reverse down sustainably.
30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Size doesn’t matter, 1. Enabled by a flight-to-safety, the rally that was signaled at 125’28 added more than 2 points Thursday to test 133’12. Closing any higher would put into play 134’18, and potentially 135’10. Post-close buying extended up thus far to 134’08, which is not a close. Friday’s Employment Situation report might initially extend the rally, but a pullback to the 129’00 area is increasingly likely.
Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Size doesn’t matter, 2. The downleg targeting a probe under 92.00 extended down $5.50 Thursday through its next lower object at 89.35 to new lows at 86.04. Despite the extension, this leg could still suffice as the long-awaited final downleg to complete a bottom. Closing above 89.40 would signal that momentum was reversing up, at least to test 93.00.
Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Old lows give way to new lows. Tuesday’s shallow attempt at new lows had reflected too much optimism for a bottom, and Wednesday’s drop back to prior lows at 4.07 confirmed. Thursday’s reaction to EIA plunged to 3.91. A corrective bounce has room up to 4.03 (which is almost a target at this stage of the pattern) before sellers begin losing traction. The next lower objective is 3.70.
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