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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

By Rod David | April 2, 2019 - 2:22 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday didn’t delay probing fresh lows under the 1.1278 target that was met Monday. The fresh low was shallow before bouncing to test Monday’s “higher prior lows” as resistance. The target’s slow approach, its immediate influence, and now its quick attraction from above, all suggest that optimism remains too high from a contrarian perspective for a bottom to be credible.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s retest of 1291.30 was its first intraday test, and needs to hold for a recovery above 1302.00 to signal the trend reversing back up. Closing any lower would instead suggest the pullback is extending.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Tuesday probed Thursday’s 14.95 low by a nickel before bouncing back into positive territory. Closing above 15.10 would signal momentum reversing up. Otherwise, closing under 14.95 would now signal a more substantial pullback underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Breaking under the 149-11 pullback limit Monday allowed room for extending down to 147-17/147-25, which narrow ranging overnight and Tuesday did not try to exploit. Completing the pullback Wednesday would be helpful to greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already trending up into Tuesday’s open extended to fresh highs at 62.50. The rally remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 61.70 as support. Closing under 60.50 would reverse the trend down. But Wednesday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength, that might not react favorably initially, but should provide an anchor to recover a knee-jerk reaction down.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending back down Tuesday attacked Friday’s 2.66 low close, which should at least be filled, if not also probed before establishing a durable bottom. Otherwise, closing back above 2.75 would still get a benefit of the doubt for already reversing momentum back up.

Posted in Bigger Picture, Daily Spot, members-only