Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Another head-fake. Thursday open gapped up. Like Wednesday’s gap down, the open probed a level whose recovery would signal extending in that direction. Wednesday it was a test of 74.15 support, and Thursday it was 74.93 resistance. But also like Wednesday’s gap down, the balance of Thursday morning trended in the opposite direction. And a final similarly: their afternoons both ranged essentially 74.55-74.93. A close beyond either end Friday would still trigger a new leg in that direction, targeting either 76.00 above, or 73.00 below.
Gold Dec (GCZ) A century mark too far? The trend’s next higher objective at 1818.00 was met Wednesday evening within 40 cents. It was all retraced back to Wednesday’s ~1787.00 close by Thursday’s open. The flat open soon resumed the overnight retracement’s momentum, and extended down to 1750.00 before the close, 1734.00 afterward. A second consecutive close under 1768.00 would confirm momentum reversing down, targeting 1715.00 and potentially 1668.00.
Silver Dec (SIZ) Bear-weather friends. Thursday’s inside day wasn’t very predictive. Which was itself predictive. The inside day undermines Wednesday’s bounce, which was itself “ineffectual optimism” that peaked upon filling the gap back to Monday’s close. A simultaneous surge along with Gold that reverses to close negative would signal a new downleg likely underway.
30-year Treasury Sep (USU) 2 points is relatively nothing. Thursday’s auction was not well-received. What had been slight weakness down to 137’00 suddenly spiked down to 135’00. Closing under 136’20 would undermine the rally – a bounce to 136’20 was reversed back down to 135’00. A second consecutive close under 136’20 would signal the trend had reversed down already. Otherwise, recovering 136’20 Friday, probably by gapping up to or through it, would still likely retets Tuesday’s 139’27 high.
Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Late lift says much. Despite Wednesday’s “ineffectual optimism,” Thursday’s session largely ranged around 83.25, and then surged to 85.90. Unless the late surge were rejected immediately by gapping down Friday, the bounce to 90.25 is underway. Monday’s 78.25 low and Sunday night’s 75.71 low will still need to be tested, regardless. But the interim bounce suggests that their retest will form a durable bottom.
Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Striking a nerve? Thursday’s initial weakness touched Friday’s 3.94 low close just before the EIA report triggered a spike up to 4.14. That could suffice as a low, despite not filling the gap back to Monday’s 3,87 opening print. But confirmation would be helpful from a second consecutive higher close – preferably above 4.20.
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