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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | August 12, 2011 - 4:19 pm

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Jun (DXM) Lulled into complacency. Friday’s open gapped down a little and extended down only a little more. Session lows held repeated tests of 74.55 support, whose break would have otherwise triggered a downleg to be confirmed under 74.15… Currencies happen to be a market that tends to duplicate Friday’s characteristics on Monday. That would be a neat trick in this headline-driven environment, considering how subdued Friday’s action was.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Not much fear for the weekend. Thursday’s reversal down from attacking 1818.00 was extended down to 1725.80. So long as 1744.50 holds as resistance, this downleg should touch at least 1715.00-1720.00, possibly also 1685.00, and potentially 1668.00. And that’s all just as a correction.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Rotation! Friday’s narrow range ended the day probing Thursday’s highs as resistance. An interesting juxtaposition to Gold’s sell-off. If this is rotation out of leadership and into laggards, then it is the second-to-last step before a comprehensive top. Another day of such divergence Monday would be appropriate. Anyway, the last step would find the Precious Metals complex rallying in unison. Otherwise, still looking at noise.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Saved by the closing bell. As suspected, Thursday’s close under 136’20 didn’t extend down Friday. But it wasn’t recovered by gapping up. Instead, the close back above 136’20 invalidated Thursday’s signal. This reinstates the potential to retest the 140’00 area – potentially up to 140’20 – so long as Thursday’s 135’00 low were not broken as support.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Better luck next time. Thursday’s late surge above the 83.25 signal was extended higher Friday morning. A little. And not for very long. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways, closing on its lows and in negative territory. It’s not optimal confirmation to Thursday’s trigger. Back under 83.25 would now trigger a sell signal targeting a retest of the 78.25 and 75.71 lows.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Wrong pedal, naturally. Rather than extend Thursday’s rally to test 4.20, Friday’s session retraced it down to 4.05. Dipping another 2-3 cents under 4.02-4.03 would target a retest of 3.93 support, and potentially also fill the gap back to last Monday’s 3.87 open.

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Posted in Daily Spot