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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | August 16, 2011 - 6:47 pm

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Not another false break. Tuesday’s gap up probed 74.15 as resistance. Its break as support on Monday had signaled the new downleg underway. The gap back to Monday’s 73.94 close was filled but held as support, while 74.15 held as resistance. A second consecutive lower close would have been optimal to confirm the drop’s momentum remained intact for Wednesday. But almost any break under 73.90 would still be credible for resuming the decline.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Going out with a bang. Outsized gains extended Monday’s rally by gapping up $20 up to 1780.00, and ranging sideways intraday up to only 1790.00. If the corrective bounce has ended, then it intends to test 1818.00 intraday. Either way, this leg should be the last major upleg pending a much deeper extended bear market.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Gong out with a whimper, but going out. Although not quite to the same degree, Gold’s intraday rally was distributed among Precious Metals. And Silver met relevant resistance at 40.15. Either the bounce has now ended, or else a higher high targeting 40.75 should precede a major downleg. Closing above 41.00 would put into play a test of 42.25.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) In the absence of breaking lower. Closing above 136’20 has once again opened the door for a corrective bounce targeting a test of the 140’00 area. Wednesday’s pre-open PPI following suit with Tuesday’s Industrial Production surprise could be the catalyst.

Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Trying to find its footing. Still not impressed with the rally’s lack of follow-through, even for a corrective bounce. It still has room up to 90.00, but recent lows should be retested regardless.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) An opportunity mostly missed. Fresh lows Tuesday confirmed that Monday afternoon’s surge was overly-optimistic. But Tuesday’s low also stopped optimistically premature of probing prior lows, which would still help to form a more durable bottom.

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Posted in Daily Spot