Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Try, try again. Thursday’s gap up extended higher to avoid confirming Wednesday’s break, just like Tuesday’s gap up had avoided confirming Monday’s break. While 74.15 was recovered through the close, 74.55 held its test as resistance. So, another break under 74.15 could reinstate the drop’s momentum. But closing above 74.55 would still require a second consecutive higher close to confirm momentum had reversed up.
Gold Dec (GCZ) Bouncing on old box springs. Having recovered 1790.00, a retest of 1818.00 was put into play. And it was tested Thursday up to 1829.70. It nearly defined the afternoon’s support through the close. That’s a big target to test after Wednesday’s new high close, which was not itself a new intraday high. A second consecutive higher close above 1818.00 would make the rally likely to extend ($2000?). Closing back under 1790.00 would trigger the next downleg.
Silver Dec (SIZ) Dragged higher by gold? Thursday’s fresh high tested long-standing resistance at 40.75. A second consecutive higher could extend the rally at an accelerated pace. I would want to see 41.45 broken on that close for confirmation. Otherwise, buying pressure is being satisfied without yet gaining new traction, becoming vulnerable to reversing back down.
30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Trying to beat the next downgrade. Tuesday’s close above 136’20 got its confirmation Wednesday, and then met is target Thursday by retesting 140’00 (up to 141’06). The 139’29 prior high held as resistance through the close, suggesting that buyers gained no traction for their efforts. Now a dip has room down to 138’24 just as noise. But closing under 137’10 would signal momentum reversing down.
Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Acting like there’s no bottom in sight. The reaction down started Thursday after Wednesday’s test of 89.00, instead of first testing 90.00. And the reaction down extended to 81.15. Closing under 83.25 already puts into play a retest of 78.25 and 75.71. A second consecutive lower close would confirm. Otherwise, closing back above 83.25 Friday would put into play a test of 90.00, and probably a much more substantial upleg.
Natural Gas Sep (NGU) Trying to avoid a bottom. A spike up in reaction to Thursday morning’s EIA report attacked 4.00 but was reversed to a new low at 3.84. Another reaction up ended the day testing 3.90 as resistance. Rejecting new lows intraday to close above 3.93 would have sealed a bottom. Closing Friday above 4.00 would also suffice.
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