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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | August 22, 2011 - 5:45 pm

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) False start, again. Despite gapping down at its open, Monday’s positive close did not confirm Friday’s break under the 74.15 sell signal. Monday’s positive close was only modestly higher, and spent the afternoon hugging 74.15 as resistance, so immediate weakness at Tuesday’s open would be credible for extending down. A close above 74.55 is still needed to signal momentum has reversed up.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Day-long buying produces nothing new. Thursday night’s test of the 1181.00-1182.40 area was exceeded Sunday night up to 1898.60. It was retested intraday up to 1899.40, after reacting down to 1858.00. The $40 dip was still so optimistic that it only narrowly avoided filling the gap back to Friday’s close. And now there is no overnight high yet to be tested. Closing under 1181.00-1182.40 would have been bearish Monday, but an early break under 1873.00 could gain traction to the downside intraday.

Silver Dec (SIZ) All that glitters isn’t gold. Another glimpse of rotation came in Monday’s intraday uptrend which, unlike Gold, extended through its overnight highs. The 45.55 target is in-play, so long as 42.55 holds as support.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) The calm before storming higher. Monday’s narrow range wasn’t much narrower than Friday’s inside day. In any case, sellers did not gain traction, making a retest of the 141’06 high likely. A downleg could be credible after closing under 138’00.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) False bravado. Initial weakness overnight on the Libya news fell to 81.18. It was absorbed and reversed to gap up back at Friday’s 83.85 highs. The balance of the session ranged sideways, momentarily piercing negative territory under 82.50. While the ultimate reaction to the overnight news was not as bearish as its first blush, its recovery didn’t gain any traction. A close under 82.50 would put into play a retest of August’s lows.

Natural Gas Sep (NGU) This time, with feeling. Friday’s gap up never improved intraday. And it was totally retraced Monday, almost back down to Thursday’s low. Now closing above 3.95 would signal a bottom forming, but a close above 4.00 is needed to signal momentum reversing up.

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