Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Another false start. Tuesday’s open gapped down under Monday’s 73.90 low from its 74.15 close. The balance of the session ranged sideways, exclusively in negative territory, but back above Monday’s low. This is “ineffectual pessimism.” It’s not a buy signal, but retesting 74.15 would be likely to close above it, and that would target 74.55 and then 76.00. Otherwise, a second consecutive lower close Wednesday – under 73.90 – would put into play at least 73.00.
Gold Dec (GCZ) Dangerously thin air up here. Monday night’s new high up to 1917.90 was retraced entirely before Tuesday’s open, which gapped down to 1881.00. That left no unfinished business above. Breaking under 1873.00 would have robbed buyers of their traction. The drop extended down after the pit close to 1826.00 and should also test 1818.00. A bounce has room up to 1839.00 without the decline losing traction.
Silver Dec (SIZ) Outperforming Gold, on pullbacks. The open’s gap down Tuesday recovered only briefly into positive territory above 43.43 before reversing down further to 42.00, and then after hours to 41.50. Unless Wednesday’s close were to recover positive territory, this may be the beginning of a much bigger downleg.
30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Volatility is alive, what about the trend? Tuesday’s opening gap down to 138’28 was unlikely to extend since it originated from a narrow extended range. In fact, it was reversed into positive territory at 140’16 above the prior two sessions’ highs. That didn’t prevent another dip into the close back under the prior two sessions’ lows to close at 139’02. That wasn’t necessarily bullish, as outside days expend a lot of energy. Gapping down or closing under 138’00 would still trigger a new downleg, but 141’06 could be retested first.
Crude Oil Sep (CLU) Testing big resistance. Tuesday’s session probed natural resistance at “higher prior lows” – the 86.10 lower-end of the trading range that launched the last downleg. Being resistance, a reaction down is likely, signaled under 83.65 and targeting 80.00 and lower. Closing above 87.65 – preferably by gapping up – would target 92.00.
Natural Gas Sep (NGU) An opportunity to rally. Closing above 3.95 and 4.00 in the same session offers greater confirmation in momentum reversing up. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm. Its minimum objective would be 4.20, with potential to 4.50.
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