Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Refueling sellers. Two consecutive lower closes under a sell signal require a third. Rather than extend down immediately to fulfill this obligation, Tuesday gapped up to test the 74.15 sell signal. So long as it is not recovered, the decline should resume, targeting at least 73.00.
Gold Dec (GCZ) Well, when you put it that way... Monday’s lows avoided the 1775.00 sell signal, which was only probed after the close. This vulnerable situation was leveraged inadvertently by Fed Governor Evans arguing on CNBC that ZIRP did not cause commodity inflation, favoring a third round of QE. Gold rallied $40 during those sentences. The rally extended after the close to attack Sunday night’s 1841.50 high. If Wednesday’s open does not gap down to form an Island, then the bounce is probably extending further up to 1851.50-1853.50.
Silver Dec (SIZ) Strong, but relatively weaker. Tuesday’s gap up was retraced briefly back under prior highs. Although the dip recovered, it stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back to Monday’s close. This suggests that buyers are impatient, which does not tend to produce durable rallies. A close under 40.60 would reverse momentum down.
30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Tough to take that first step. Monday’s close under 137’10 indicated that the window for bouncing to 139’06 had ended. But a close under 136’25 to signal a new downleg underway had yet to form. Tuesday’s bounce back above 138’00 jeopardizes Monday’s signal. And closing above 139’00 would now target a retest of the 141’06 high.
Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Stretching the rubber band tigher. Monday’s gap up softened ahead of Tuesday’s open, but the morning rallied to fresh highs at 89.21. This tests the last relative high with potential for any higher high to extend higher to 92.25. The pattern is not reliable, and back under 86.75 would now signal a new downleg underway.
Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Just when I thought I was out... Tuesday’s recovery back into the range failed to confirm Monday’s break to fresh lows. It also keeps alive potential for the basing to launch a new rally leg, still triggered above 4.00. Coverage will be maintained.
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