Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Restless downleg syndrome. Tuesday and Wednesday’s testing of the 74.15 sell signal delayed extending down under it. Thursday delayed it further by gapping up to the 74.55 buy signal. It was still being tested at the close, despite probing higher intraday. The base that launched the gap up wasn’t substantial, so the buy signal is dubious. A second consecutive higher close would confirm, but it is meanwhile suspicious.
Gold Dec (GCZ) Noise in a range. Tuesday and Wednesday’s relatively narrow range extended through Thursday. Trending was up into the range, so the burden of proof remains on sellers to reverse it. But the pattern’s first trending attempt is likely to be false, retraced back into the pattern, and reversed through it for a more substantial move in the opposite direction.
Silver Dec (SIZ) Sympathetic delay. Potential for extending the bounce was inhibited Thursday by Gold’s extended narrow range. So long as 41.25 continues holding as support, fresh highs remain likely up to 42.75 or 43.15.
30-year Treasury Sep (USU) Whipsaw. Wednesday’s dip back down stopped 1 tick short of closing under 137’10. A lower close would have signaled momentum reversing down, and under 136’25 would have confirmed. Thursday morning’s slide did probe well under 136’25, but it reacted up to 138’23. Still no close above 139’00, so still no buy signal has triggered, which would target a retest of the 141’06 high.
Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Slow-going. The rally’s delay continued Thursday, further suggesting that a fresh high would not have enough momentum to extend higher. A slightly higher high was probed intraday up to 89.90, only to close back under the ~89.20 prior highs. No pattern is currently active.
Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Looking good. Thursday’s opening gap up immediately exploited Wednesday’s close above the 3.95-4.00 buy signals. Excessive sentiment ahead of EIA reports tends to be contrary, which was proved by a reaction down to the pattern’s 3.97 pullback limit. The pattern played out appropriately, bouncing sharply from there to close above 4.05. Closing above 4.10 would confirm the rally is underway.
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