Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Skeptical strength. Whipsaw reactions to Friday’s NFP essentially ranged between 74.55 support, and Thursday’s ~74.80 high. Closing any higher would have put into play 76.00. Perhaps it did — a second consecutive higher close would confirm. Meanwhile, closing back under 74.15 would target 73.00.
Gold Dec (GCZ) One might think another QE was coming. Finally tested its 1851.50-1853.70 bounce target Friday. But rather than reverse down, the rally extended sharply to 1887.40. Almost any higher high would target a retest of 1915.00 up to 1933.50. Otherwise, a close under 1853.70 is needed to signal momentum reversing down, ending a massive corrective bounce.
Silver Dec (SIZ) That’s why it’s awarded to second place. The 42.75 and 43.15 targets were both tested Friday up to 43.50. Closing under 42.50 would signal a new downleg underway. Otherwise, fresh highs would target 44.44.
30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Weak jobs, weak stocks, weak sellers. Having absorbed three attempts to trigger a downleg, Friday’s favorable NFP reaction bounced. It extended up sharply in a flight-to-safety amid falling stocks, probing the 139’28 prior high (141’06 basis Sep) up to 140’13. Its retest should visit 140’16 and potentially 140’22. Closing any higher could extend up to 144’04.
Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Predictable. Perhaps too predictable to last. Last Monday’s gap up above 86.95 had only limped higher all week to barely probe fresh highs up to 90.00. Friday’s open gapped down under 86.95. The drop may yet extend down to test 84.80, whose break would signal momentum reversing down. Almost any delay in extending down would be vulnerable to filling the gap back to Thursday’s 89.15 close.
Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Hurricane damage, without the hurricane. If Friday’s plunge was the result of downgrading hurricane Katia, then the week’s earlier rally had expected a stronger storm. Could be, but headline reactions is the stuff of weak-handed sponsorship — both up, and down. This pattern should not have been able to close above 3.95 and 4.00 unless the rally’s sponsorship was strong hands. Perhaps the drop back to 3.85 from 4.10 was exacerbated by the news and by the impending weekend. But any bullish scenario would require some decisive recovery through Tuesday’s close.
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