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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | September 6, 2011 - 4:27 pm

A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Once more, from the top. Holiday strength extended into Tuesday’s opening gap up. And  Tuesday’s opening gap up extended up to the 76.00 target. The rally’s dubious origin — coming after a confirmed sell signal had put into play 73.00, and the delayed follow-through above 74.55 – does want that the rally cannot tolerate much pullback. But it can extend higher to fresh highs above 76.55 so long as 75.15 were to hold as support.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Fresh high, fresh resistance. New highs into Tuesday’s open probed the 1915.00 prior highs up to 1923.70. Its retest was likely also to test 1133.00-1135.00, but the reaction down already tested 1861.00. The reaction should not gain traction without first probing another new high, at least holding 1871.00 as support on a closing basis. Closing under 1853.70 would signal momentum reversing down.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Another rotation is ending. Tuesday’s entire session was spent in negative territory, proof that Friday’s buyers did not gain traction. that’s not necessarily bearish, since Tuesday’s low did fill the gap back down to Friday’s 41.62 close. Rallying Wednesday or Thursday with Gold would likely probe fresh highs.

30-year Treasury Sep (USU) There, but for the sake of a crash? Flight-to-quality produced a retest of the 141.06 high that was already in-play. and the retest extended higher to 141’29. Its retest would be triggered back above 141’18. Otherwise, Tuesday’s reaction down to 140’23 would be bearish at this stage only if Wednesday’s open were to gap down under 140’06 to form an Island Reversal.

Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Try, try, retry again. Despite once again probing the 84.80 sell signal intraday — and once again probing it meaningfully down to 83.20 — the close recovered back above the sell signal. Unlike last week’s two prior intraday attempts, the entire session was spent essentially in negative territory. The 84.80 recovery should prove quickly to have been only temporary.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) No cigar. Tuesday’s bounce came near reversing Friday’s carnage. Only a close back above 3.95-4.00 could trigger any sort of rally, and Tuesday’s high only touched 3.95. Closing above 4.00 would be bullish.

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