Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Hanging on. Tuesday’s test of the 76.00 target reacted down Wednesday, but only to attack Tuesday’s post-open low. It was an “inside day” so its sponsorship didn’t gain traction. And it was biased downward, so its sponsorship was sellers. Therefore, sellers are the weak hands, making at least another fresh high likely. A test of 76.55 is still likely.
Gold Dec (GCZ) Fickle. Wednesday’s gap down to 1837.50 from Tuesday’s ~1870.00 close extended lower intraday to 1793.80. The support of last week’s narrow range was defined as essentially 1819.00-1820.00, and closing under it would have signaled momentum reversing down — it was still being tested through the close. Closing above the range’s 1835.00 upper-end would have been bullish, so gapping open Thursday above its 1843.00 prior high (which should be tested regardless) would still be likely to extend higher to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s ~1870.00 close.
Silver Dec (SIZ) All that glitters may be Silver for awhile. Its outperformance vs. Gold Thursday included closing while in the process of testing resistance, and not just still testing support. This is despite the session low having filled and outstanding gap, which Gold only attacked. A stronger recovery from a greater depth suggests that rotation into Silver is resuming. Its gap back to Friday’s 43.12 close should attract price higher, potentially to fresh highs above 44.00.
30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Wake-up call. Wednesday’s gap down under 140’06 extended down 1 point before bouncing. The bounce then held 140’06 as resistance, and formed an Island out of Tuesday’s test of 142’00. Since 140’06 was the prior high, there is no requirement to retest the Island that formed from gapping down under 140’06. And closing under 139’00 would extend the decline rapidly. That said, closing back above 140’06 Thursday would invalidate the Island, to at least retest the high.
Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Pop it and drop it. Tuesday’s recovery from 83.20 extended up to the 89.75 area, attacking last week’s high. A fresh high is likely above 90.00, and it could extend to 92.00 (or $2-$3 higher). But now closing under 86.90 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 84.80.
Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Another college try. Where Tuesday’s recovery attempt stopped at the lower-end of its 3.95-4.00 resistance, Wednesday’s recovery attempt probed 3.95-4.00 intraday. The close was in the process of testing 3.95 as support. A close above 4.00 is needed to actually rob sellers of their traction. And at this stage of the pattern, it should be done by surging aggressively to fresh highs. To which I note that Thursday brings the weekly EIA report.
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