Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Sucking higher. Wednesday’s “inside day” that was biased downward meant weak hands were sellers. That left the door open to resuming the bounce up to 76.55. Thursday’s open did gap up, and the session eventually extended higher to 76.40. Fresh highs remain in-play so long as 76.00 now holds as support.
Gold Dec (GCZ) Down, but not out. Despite underperforming Silver during Wednesday’s plunge down to 1793.80, a retest of last Wednesday’s ~1843.50 high was likely. Gapping above it was likely to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s 1875.10 close. Gapping open above 1843.50 did get to 1868.70 intraday. And it got there early, ranging narrowly through the balance of the session. This is “ineffectual pessimism,” making the gap fill likelier. In fact, Gold extended higher to 1873.30 after the close, keeping alive potential for a fresh high at 1833.00.
Silver Dec (SIZ) Out, but not down. Thursday’s gap up attacked Tuesday’s 42.70 highs, early enough to have probed higher. But the balance of the session hovered just below, presumably conserving energy for breaking higher Friday to probe above 44.00 — so long as 41.60-41.65 were to hold as support.
30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Just a warning shot. Gapping up Thursday probed 140’06 resistance, but quickly retraced back into Wednesday’s range, into negative territory at 139’09. But the close recovered into positive territory instead of confirming Tuesday’s break with a negative close. And the close was attacking 140’06, which is dangerously close for launching a retest of the 142’00 high — at least up to 141’12 if any higher at all.
Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Price creep. Despite backing off from the overnight 90.11 fresh highs, the reaction down held within the narrow 88.40-89.20 range at last week’s highs. Closing under 86.90 would signal momentum reversing down, but otherwise there is still potential for extending higher to test 92.00.
Natural Gas Oct (NGV) There’s patience, and there’s comatose. Wednesday’s probes above 4.00 were repeated Thursday, but not to higher highs. Nevertheless, 3.95 did support the range’s lower-end. This does not disqualify a rally from gaining traction. I would still expect a rally to begin by surging sharply intraday. But I would also expect a rally to begin without further delay.
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