Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] These can be viewed with accompanying charts at this link.
Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Breaking out is easy to do. The bounce’s potential to 76.55 was fulfilled at Friday’s opening gap up. The rally then extended higher to 77.37 as the Euro probed new lows. So long as 76.85 were to hold as support, the next higher objectives are 78.00 and 78.45. There are now two outstanding gaps below to fill that will prevent a durable rally.
Gold Dec (GCZ) Slow day. The minimum objective of filling the gap back to Tuesday’s 1875.10 close was fulfilled by a strong overnight rally up to 1889.10. But not so strong as to avoid gapping down in negative territory down to 1825.50. Nevertheless, 1835.00 held as support to prevent a decline from gaining traction. And a recovery closed in positive territory. Tuesday’s 1875.10 gap should still be filled intraday, possibly on the way to new highs at 1933.00.
Silver Dec (SIZ) Stealth accumulation. An overnight probe above Tuesday’s highs to 42.80 was reversed into negative territory Friday. All of the session was spent in negative territory, filling the gap back to Wednesday’s 41.57 close. In fact, the gap was tested repeatedly without breaking lower. This is “ineffectual pessimism,” which undermines sellers, and keeps alive potential to resume the rally to fresh highs above 44.00.
30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Going out on almost a high note. My concern Thursday was that closing only under 140’06 did not confirm Wednesday’s break. In fact, the bounce potential up to 141’12 was fulfilled, and tested into the close. There is no requirement to retest the 142’00 high before turning down. A new downleg would be signaled upon closing under 140’06.
Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Shaky ground. Friday’s gap down tested the 86.90 sell signal, and even probed more than $1 below it. But the level was recovered through the close, along with an intraday probe under the morning’s low. This is “ineffectual pessimism,” keeping alive potential for filling the gap back up to Thursday’s 89.00 close and possibly also probe its 90.23 high.
Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Opened, traded, closed. Friday’s gap down was retraced enough to almost fill the gap back to Thursday’s close. Sellers did not gain traction despite spending the entire session in negative territory. Still waiting for a close above 3.95-4.00 to trigger a rally.
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