Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Sep (DXU) Big window. Sunday night’s high nearly fulfilled its 78.00 objective as the Euro was testing its 1.3580 target. Its test — potentially up to 78.45 — remains likely so long as 76.85 were to hold as support. I would expect the Euro to simultaneously test its 1.3580 target.
Gold Dec (GCZ) Too much. Monday’s big drop from 1861.00 spent the morning testing its 1835.00 sell signal. Its noon hour break extended down to 1804.00. A second consecutive lower close would confirm a new downleg underway, targeting 1781.00 and eventually new relative lows at 1636.50. Closing positive Tuesday, especially if after testing 1781.00 intraday, would essentially put into play new highs at 1833.00-1835.00.
Silver Dec (SIZ) Too late. Friday’s “ineffectual pessimism” was followed by some pretty effective pessimism in Monday’s gap down. Its early attack on last week’s 40.45 low broke lower into the close. New relative lows under 39.00 are in-play, unless Tuesday’s close were to recover 40.95 — which is still somewhat likely, and which would again put into play a probe above 44.00.
30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Nailed. Rather than push price around, Monday’s ongoing headlines kept constrained price action into a narrow range around Friday’s 114’12 objective. The next trending attempt should be false, probably from probing fresh highs above 142’00 and closing back under 141’12.
Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Once more, with gusto. Monday’s session firmed out of Friday’s “ineffectual pessimism” but stopped short of filling the gap back to Thursday’s 89.09 close. This hesitation is more pessimism, and keeps alive potential for continuing above 90.00 to attack 92.00, so long as 86.90 holds as support on a closing basis.
Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Veni,vidi, wishi, washi. Monday’s gap down spent the entire session in negative territory without trending down. This is “ineffectual pessimism,” but it offers no new information — closing above 3.95-4.00 is still needed to trigger a rally.
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