Daily Spot
A weekly summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Nice try. Friday’s opening gap up retraced all of Thursday’s intervention dive. But that wasn’t enough to form an Island of it. At least the session’s narrow range hovered pessimistically just under 77.35, which had been the pullback limit until Thursday. This being a market that tends to duplicate Friday’s characteristics on Monday, opening strength should extend higher. The gap back to Monday’s 78.21 close would be targeted, on the way to 78.50 or 78.90. But closing under Thursday’s 76.25 close would signal a bigger downleg underway.
Gold Dec (GCZ) Gapping from an inside day can end this way. Gapping up Friday eventually gained momentum to test 1798.50 resistance. Its break higher attacked Wednesday’s 1826.30 close up to 1825.00. That’s a lot of optimism to stop pessimistically short of even filling its gap, let alone probing it as would be natural. Now, so long as 1798.50 were to hold pullbacks as support, the recovery can extend back to prior highs.
Silver Dec (SIZ) Not this time. Friday’s opening gap up back above Monday’s 40.07 low extended higher intraday to attack 41.00. Just closing above 40.50 triggers an upleg targeting 44.00, so long as 40.40 now holds as support.
30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Lack of conviction. Initial weakness Friday morning retested Thursday’s 138’23 low by 1 tick. The morning’s sole econ report sparked a surge that quickly settled into ranging around 139’20. This backing-and-filling isn’t gaining traction. A close under 139’00 would still get a benefit of the doubt for extending further to 137’16. But closing above 140’06 remains possible, and it would target new highs above 142’00.
Crude Oil Oct (CLV) Get a room already. Wednesday and Thursday’s relatively narrow ranging still did not break to new highs above 90.20, let alone to my 92.00 objective. Instead, Friday dropped yet again back to test the same uptrending support that has supported three other dips since the trendline originated on Aug 8. And it held again, this time down to 87.00. Assuming that 86.90 isn’t broken, especially through a close, bounce potential to 92.00 remains alive.
Natural Gas Oct (NGV) One step forward, two steps back. After filling the gap back down to Monday’s 3.89 close Thursday, a recovery above 3.95 could have confirmed sellers gained no traction for their effort. The alternative was to launch a new downleg. The only way to extend the trend when its sponsorship gained no traction is to gap. So, instead of recovering Friday, the open gapped down under prior lows and extended to 3.79. Since this is a market that tends to duplicate Friday’s action on Monday, it is vulnerable to extending down. For the same reason, not extending down would when it could — and even should — would allow the lower-end of the range to launch a recovery back to its upper-end.
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