Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Tired. Friday’s negative close did not confirm Thursday’s breakout. This market tends to duplicate Friday’s action on Mondays, so trending is unlikely to resume. An attempt to extend the rally would likely fail, more harshly on Tuesday if not by Monday’s close. Otherwise, the pattern is more likely to attack its “lower prior highs” down to 78.00.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Dead (cat bounce). Friday’s historic day tested the decline’s lowest calculable target at 1636.50 by $5. Closing back above 1653.60 would have triggered a bounce up to 1736.00, whether immediate or following a retest of Friday’s lows Monday. The regular close stopped $7 short — before extending to 1661.50. The setup would still be valid if fulfilled Monday… The CME raised margin requirements after the close.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Over-extended. Friday’s open immediately tested targets at 33.25 and 32.40. The next target range at 29.00-30.45 was probed, and held through the close. Gapping up Monday above 33.25 would be likely to test 36.70… The CME raised margin requirements after the close.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) caption. RSIs diverged negatively into Friday’s retest of 146’12 up to 147’00. Its reaction fell to 144’12 after hours. Closing 1 tick lower would have sealed a top. Instead, a bounce is likely to test 145’02 before dipping any further. Gapping down under 143’08 would form an Island Reversal. Closing above 145’20 would trigger a new upleg targeting 150’08.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) caption. Thursday’s test of 81.00 extended down to 77.55 Friday. That retested at least the Aug 9 intraday low. The Aug 8 76.61 overnight low remains in-play. Since Friday’s close recovered back above Thursday’s lows, a detour above 82.00 would not be surprising.

Natural Gas Oct (NGV) caption. Friday’s “inside day” followed Thursday’s new low that did not extend down. Sellers don’t seem to be gaining any traction. None of which is a buy signal, but a probe of new lows under 3.66 that recovers to close above 3.75 would be likely to 3.92.

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