Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]
Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) It’s a start. Gapping down under 78.50 confirmed the pullback underway to test last week’s “lower prior highs” in the 78.00 area. The balance of the session extended down for the test. It is premature to expect one day’s decline to fulfill the correction.
Gold Dec (GCZ) “A” for effort. Monday evening’s rally from 1598.00 extended up to 1679.00 overnight. Intraday action fought to maintain much of the gain. But the close was still testing 1653.60 whose recovery would have sealed a bottom. A fresh high would target 1680.00, but closing under 1636.50 and confirmed under 1620.00 would target 1555.00.
Silver Dec (SIZ) Position of strength. Closing Tuesday above Friday’s high probably sealed a bottom, or at least made any new sell-off likely to be absorbed and reversed into a more durable upleg. A pullback to at least 30.50 is likely, regardless.
30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Decision time. The 141’25 pullback limit was probed by more than 1 point intraday Tuesday. A bounce into the close stopped short of recovering 141’25, but closing back above 142’10 would trigger a bounce targeting 145’10. If the pullback hasn’t ended, then it isn’t a pullback, and a gap down under the 140’00 area would be likely.
Crude Oil Nov (CLX) A little much. Tuesday’s highs exceeded the pattern’s corrective bounce targets. The recent “higher prior lows” at 85.17 were attacked to within 30 cents. That’s much closer than I expected — filling the gap before reversing to new lows would leave no unfinished business above to attract price back up. This bounce might yet extend to 86.40 if not rejected already Wednesday morning.
Natural Gas Oct (NGV) Just looking. Fresh highs at Tuesday’s open did not extend intraday. The session did not turn negative, so the bounce seems to be sponsored by patient buyers. Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from closing Wednesday above 3.86, without yet testing 3.88, would likely resolve up. Anything else is much less predictable, but still capable of forming a bottom.
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