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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | October 5, 2011 - 5:37 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) The pause that refreshes. Wednesday’s gap down immediately fulfilled the minimum pullback target of 79.62. This clears the way for resuming the upleg. Closing above 80.05 would next target 81.85 and 83.25.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Still holding support. Yet another test of 1620.00 has held. Recovering 1636.50 put into play a retest of 1653.60 resistance. While its recovery would trigger a retest of 1681.50, there would be a greater likelihood of resuming the decline.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Feeling the pressure. Wednesday’s recovery to close back above 30.00 correctly failed to confirm Tuesday’s fresh low close. It also stopped short of filling the gap back up to Monday’s close. Buying pressure should now be so compressed that it is ready to explode upward toward its 33.15 and 35.50 targets. Closing under 29.70 would invalidate the setup.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Going once… Going twice... Fresh lows overnight down to 143’28 probed under Tuesday’s 144’05 low. Lower lows intraday tested 143’12. Now closing under 143’06 would trigger a retest of 141’25, whose break would trigger a new downleg.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Signs of a bottom. Unlike Monday’s similar pattern, Tuesday’s new low close resolved by gapping up Wednesday. The balance of the session extended up to probe Monday’s 79.65 high by 20 cents. There is potential for extending the bounce to 81.05-81.10, possibly even to 83.15-83.20. Closing back under 77.40 would trigger a retest of the lows.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) No rest for… Despite gapping up at Wednesday’s open, a reversal down fulfilled the pattern’s required third new low close close. The delay still makes at least one more, if not two more, new low close closes likely before reversing up. The next major target is 3.33, but 3.20 may need to be touched, too.

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Posted in Daily Spot