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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | October 10, 2011 - 6:42 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Conflict Dollar. Apparently the pullback had not yet ended. Friday’s intraday dip under both 78.90 and 78.50 was recovered to close positive. But that didn’t prevent gapping down Monday under Friday’s low. So, the pattern is in conflict, with Monday rejecting Friday’s buyers that had absorbed sellers. Monday’s drop did fill the gap back to 77.80 and hold it, so closing above 78.25 would signal momentum reversing up.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Breaking free, not out. Thursday and Friday’s repeated bouncing between 1636.50-1653.60 resolved Monday by gapping up above the range. The afternoon’s fresh high failed to close above the morning’s high. That should help a retest of last week’s 1681.50 overnight high to hold.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Recovery, not. Monday’s gap up proved that Friday afternoon’s dive had not gained traction. But Monday’s close under 32.50 stopped short of signaling that momentum had reversed up. One more day is allowed to launch a rally, or else the recovery has a problem.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) A little much. Friday’s drop extended down Monday by gapping under Friday’s low. Holding a test of 139’00 intraday suggests that the gap back to Friday’s 141’12 close will be filled before extending down. But a close under 137’16 would renew the decline’s momentum.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) Shifting paradigms. Saudis announced no need to raise oil production, helping to trigger a gap up to fresh highs. Not just any fresh highs, but above an already outsized corrective bounce. In fact, the whole “corrective bounce” interpretation is jeopardized. Only gapping back down under 84.00 would immediately signal momentum reversing down, turning Monday’s session into an Island. Otherwise, the next pullback would itself be the correction, accelerating the schedule for a new upleg.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Turnabout is fair-play. Monday’s session oddly did not duplicate Friday’s downtrend to new lows, which is unusual for this market. Of course, Friday’s session already oddly did not exploit Thursday’s recovery setup. Still monitoring for a new pattern.

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