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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | October 12, 2011 - 3:51 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes.[pay]

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Make it quit. Wednesday’s gap down to fresh lows continued to exploit the ongoing lack of buy signal during the week-long decline. And the session trended down, ultimately testing 77.20 as support. Closing above 77.60 would reverse momentum up, but probably not before probing at least one more low intraday.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Like moving a mountain. Tuesday’s buyers had gained no traction, but neither had sellers. A strong rally overnight extended higher to retest 1681.50 up to 1694.00, which was still being tested into the close. But if the pattern does not reverse down immediately, then it is vulnerable to exploding sharply higher to 1725.50.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Making up for lost time. Wednesday’s open succeeded where Monday and Tuesday’s session failed, by recovering 32.50. But it was recovered by gapping up to 33.00, getting ahead of itself to require a dip to 33.24. The close recovered 32.50, leaving untested the opening gap above, making the rally likely to resume to its 33.15 and 35.50 targets.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Drip… drip… drip... Tuesday’s failure to recover above Monday’s range resolved by gapping down Wednesday back to Tuesday’s low. The 137’30 low stopped short of touching 137’20 support, whose break would extend the decline at an accelerated pace.

Crude Oil Nov (CLX) What’s the hold-up. Wednesday’s narrow range undermines the rally’s momentum, especially after Tuesday’s recovered dip should have refueled it. Gapping down under 83.15-83.20 would still be the clearest pattern (Island Reversal) to retrace back to the lows. Any lesser weakness would be suspicious.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Strike two. Like last Thursday’s potential recovery setup, Tuesday’s close needed only a fresh high the following day to trigger a rally. Like last Friday’s session, Wednesday only trended down. This is not a healthy spot to greet Thursday’s EIA report.

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Posted in Daily Spot