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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | October 26, 2011 - 5:05 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Rumbles. Headlines exploited Tuesday’s basing to trigger a surge back up to 76.80 prior lows. Its resistance held, but its reaction down held a healthy 61.8% retracement. Now recovering 76.80 again would trigger a buy signal targeting 79.00and then new highs above 80.40.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Treading water. Tuesday’s surge put into play a test of 1724.00. It was fulfilled early Wednesday, and a dip to 1711.00 recovered to afternoon fresh highs at 1728.00. The 1724.00 target ultimately held its retest as resistance. The rally may extend up to 1748.00 if not rejected almost immediately Thursday.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Don’t. Look. Down. Wednesday’s immediate fresh high wasn’t much higher, and its retracement still overlapped Tuesday’s range. In fact, the balance of the session simply ranged sideways. This is not a pattern likely to absorb too much of a dip, so its rally all but depends upon extending higher without delay.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Reminder: support is gone. The probes above 140’06 were pushed back to test 139’00. This was not impressive. Closing under 139’00 was, as it triggers the sell signal for a second time. Now, any delay in extending down — noticeably, not just trickling lower — would be bullish.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Patient sellers. Wednesday’s weak session did not gap down to form an Island. So, there is greater potential for a downleg to gain traction and to extend sharply lower. But only if Tuesday’s 94.11 opening gap can be filled Thursday, and its test react down to close under 90.50-90.75.

Natural Gas Nov (NGX) Past catching up with it. Wednesday’s weakness seems finally to be acknowledging the excessive optimism that has been avoiding the gap fill down to 3.53. Its test and recovery to close positive Thursday would help to launch a new rally leg.

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Posted in Daily Spot