Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Easy come… and hard come, too. Sunday night’s rally on Yen intervention developed into a gap up at Wednesday’s lows. Wednesday’s lows had preceded Thursday’s gap down and session-long slide. Its recovery could marginalize the interim selling. Holding its test would simply refuel sellers. Its test wasn’t rejected through Monday’s close, and the gap back to Wednesday’s close was flirted with pessimistically. Immediate follow-through Tuesday would be credible for launching a significant rally, but almost any delay could be very bearish near-term.
Gold Dec (GCZ) The “deer in headlights” pattern. Lower lows Monday followed Friday’s “ineffectual pessimism” to offer one more opportunity for reversing the trend down. Its session-long test of 1724.00 held as support, while forming another session of “ineffectual pessimism”. Holding for a second session would make a probe above 1800.00 likely.
Silver Dec (SIZ) Holding its ground. Monday’s gap down finally tested a 61.8% retracement limit at 34.20. Holding it for a second consecutive session would prevent the drop from gaining traction. Closing above 34.60 would reinstate the rally, its next objective being 36.70-37.30.
30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) It’s a stretch. Despite Friday’s highs having held tests of the 136’20 and 137’00 corrective bounce limits, Sunday night’s rally on Yen intervention enabled Monday to gap up above Friday’s highs. This made the gap likely to be filled back up to Wednesday’s 138’26 close, and probably also a test of the original 139’00 sell signal. All of which happened through Monday’s close. But it did not allow for the post-close probe higher to 139’27, which can only be dismissed by reversing down through Tuesday’s close (if not already overnight).
Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Waiting for… something. Monday’s session ignored wild, wide-ranging days among almost all other markets. This further suggests that its rally has peaked, and its reversal down is waiting only for some catalyst.
Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Keeping hope alive. Friday’s rally needed the confirmation of extending higher Monday, too. The open’s gap down suggested not, but a recovery into the close erased the session’s loss. Fresh highs above 3.95 would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher.
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