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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | November 3, 2011 - 5:29 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) At least it’s still support. Wednesday’s bounce off of 76.80-77.00 extended higher initially overnight up to 77.68. But headlines erased it all by Thursday’s open. An intraday bounce up to 77.58 was reversed down entirely, again. The critical 76.80-77.00 area was still being tested into the close, which is not predictive, and keeps alive potential for extending the rally substantially.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Excessive optimsim. Despite recovering 1724.00 so quickly Wednesday while also filling a gap above and neutralizing its attraction, an overnight rally recovered to new relative highs. The balance of the session drifted higher to 1768.00. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm the breakout. Otherwise, it is vulnerable to reversing down.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Marcia, Marcia, Marcia. Thursday’s open gapped up grudgingly above Wednesday’s high to 34.90, but was reversed down to fill the gap back to Wednesday’s ~34.00 close as Gold got all the attention. The balance of Thursday’s session ranged back up to 34.60 resistance, whose recovery Tuesday would have triggered a new rally leg. Now, it is too late.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Back to business. And business is down. Wednesday night’s rally to new recovery highs disappeared before the open. So did any hint of optimism, as Thursday’s open gapped down and probed fresh lows. If the recovery was only a detour in the bigger drop triggered last week, then it is now positioned to react very poorly to Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) The weighting game. Avoiding a close under 90.75 made the topping pattern likely to probe highs above 94.00. Thursday’s gap up to 94.00 was retraced just enough to fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s 92.55 close. Fresh highs still ended the day testing 94.00. Closing under 92.55 would start to seal a top.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Nothing goes straight down. Thursday’s open gapped up and extended higher to test resistance levels. But the market was up to its old behaviors of exhibiting extreme sentiment ahead of EIA that reliably proved contrary. The reaction down did not gain new traction, so perhaps the return of this old behavior can also mean that buyers are returning.

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Posted in Daily Spot