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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | November 15, 2011 - 5:05 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Monday’s recovery needed a second consecutive higher close Tuesday to confirm the prior pullback had ended, and that the rally had resumed. Tuesday’s open gapped up and the session trended higher to probe above last week’s highs up to 78.31. So long as 77.80-77.90 holds a support, 78.90-79.05 would be targeted next.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Tuesday’s session fluctuated from positive territory to negative and back again. Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction. So, Monday’s hesitation to probe above 1800.00 was not validated. Its probe is not required, but it is not unlikely — only likely to be probed as noise while retesting prior highs to form a Double Top.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Despite initially firming, Tuesday’s gap up was retraced to fill the gap back down to Monday’s close. The gap held as support, and the balance of the session firmed again. The entire session developed in positive territory, without probing a prior high — and, therefore, being rejected from above a prior high. A break above 35.50 remains likely.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Despite gapping up and initially firming, Tuesday’s session closed negative. Meanwhile, intraday highs filled the gap back up to 142’16 that could serve by proxy in place of actually probing the 143’04 prior highs. Closing under 140’16 would signal a new downleg underway, targeting 137’00 and lower.

Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Monday’s “ineffectual pessimism” was recovered by Tuesday’s probe of new highs, nearing the 100.00-101.00 objective. But now pullbacks have much less room to dip without sellers gaining traction. Closing under 98.80 would suggest the rally had ended already.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Departing from the pattern of the prior two sessions, Tuesday’s intraday trending to new lows did not gap down. This makes Tuesday’s new lows that much likelier to extend down further, at least eventually. So, a counter-trend bounce that begins Wednesday would be doomed to failure.

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Posted in Daily Spot