Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Wednesday’s open gapped up above prior highs. This was in spite of Tuesday’s test of prior highs having held. And this was in spite of Tuesday’s gap up not maintaining any of its post-open gains. None of which was bearish, but all of which suggested a corrective dip would be healthy. Extending higher first, aggressively, was not. All intraday gains were retraced back down to Tuesday’s close. Having filled its gap, there is no unfinished business below. And having gapped open at or under prior highs instead of above them, there is no unfinished business above.
Gold Dec (GCZ) Pullbacks had room down to 1755.00 while maintaining potential to re-probe 1800.00. Wednesday’s open gapped down and extended down sharply to briefly test 1755.00, but all post-open losses were recovered. Gapping down to 1774.50, testing a pullback limit and spending the entire session in negative territory is pessimism. A lot of it. Retracing back to 1774.50 makes that pessimism “ineffectual.” Almost any initial strength Thursday would be credible for launching the leg that does probe 1800.00. Closing under Wednesday’s low would remove any attraction back up to 1800.00.
Silver Dec (SIZ) Wednesday’s gap down tested 34.00 support and spent the entire session in negative territory. But its pessimism was “ineffectual pessimism” for not closing under 34.00 support (or for still testing it at the close). Any initial weakness Thursday would be credible for extending higher, presumably to probe above 35.50. Closing under Wednesday’s 33.57 low would remove any attraction back up to 35.50.
30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Wednesday’s inside day suggests that filling the outstanding gap at 142’16 Tuesday does not preclude probing 143’04. But a probe above 143’04 would still be unusually vulnerable to reacting down sharply almost immediately, or else probably not at all.
Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) The recovery from Tuesday’s “ineffectual pessimism” extended sharply higher Thursday, through the rally’s 100.00-101.00 target area to 120.89. Just testing 102.40 fulfills the highest calculable target for this leg prior to reversing down or simply correcting. Any higher would suggest a much more substantial rally underway.
Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Wednesday’s session-long decline extended down to new lows, which Tuesday’s pattern all but required. There is no bottoming pattern forming.
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