Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Thursday’s gap up tested Wednesday’s highs and avoided negative territory under Wednesday’s lows. The afternoon surged above Wednesday’s highs and held the new highs through the close. The lack of a corrective pullback is still a concern, but each session should continue to be immune so long as the open isn’t already in decline.
Gold Dec (GCZ) Wednesday’s “ineffectual pessimism” was never triggered by any strength Thursday. Instead, an overnight reversal extended through Wednesday’s lows to gap down under 1755.00, extending down intraday to 1711.00. No buy signal will generate without first recovering 1755.00 on a closing basis.
Silver Dec (SIZ) Although Wednesday’s close was still testing its 34.00 support, Thursday’s open gapped down under Wednesday’s low, under 33.30 and trended down to 31.00. Immediately recovering 33.30 would allow a reversal to gain traction for new highs — which still seem prematurely avoided. The trend otherwise is down.
30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Thursday’s probe above 143’04 was made likely by Wednesday’s inside day. Wednesday’s inside day also made likely a sudden and substantial reversal down once the probe had ended. The nearest sell signal at this early stage is a close back under 142’16.
Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Thursday’s steep drop confirmed that Wednesday’s 102.89 high and the 103.37 overnight high had fulfilled the highest calculable objective of 102.35 without gaining traction, which would have extended the recent rally exponentially higher. Dropping to almost 98.25 almost breaks the rally’s back, so long as bounces now hold 99.85.
Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Perhaps rotation out of Crude helped to fuel Nat Gas gapping up Thursday. But not to a significant degree, holding under prior sessions lows. A spike up on the EIA report was retraced entirely back to post-open lows. Gapping up, probing prior highs and spending the entire session in positive territory is all optimistic. But failing to gain traction is “ineffectual optimism” making fresh lows likely. That would be the first opportunity to end this new downleg.
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