Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Tuesday’s confirmation to Monday’s breakout was lacking, as discussed during each day’s Market Wrap. That didn’t prevent probing higher highs, but it always left the pattern vulnerable to a correction that could only be delayed. Friday’s open finally fulfilled it by gapping down sharply, back to the three prior days’ lows. The balance of the session trended up gently, which may have been premature to resume the rally.
Gold Dec (GCZ) Friday’s gap up gained no traction as the session ranged sideways in positive territory, except for filling the gap back to Thursday’s close. This was not accumulation, and fresh lows would likely test 1700.00.
Silver Dec (SIZ) Enough of Thursday’s outsized break lower was rejected by the open gapping up back above 31.75. A recovery didn’t gain traction despite extending up to 32.60, but a dip that fills the gap back down to Thursday’s 31.40 close could hold — or could be recovered after retesting Thursday’s 31.00 low.
30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Having probed 143’04 Thursday, Friday was free to launch a new downleg. Its open gapped down back under 143’04, but the session only ranged narrowly around 142’16. Now closing under 141’24 would signal a new downleg underway.
Crude Oil Dec (CLZ) Wednesday’s test of 102.89 was the rally’s highest calculable objective if it were going to resolve normally, at least correcting down. Thursday’s sharp break lower confirmed this by falling down to 98.34, and now Friday’s 96.64 lower low has, too. The pattern is vulnerable to one more dip simply as a correction, so long as 98.25 and 98.40 hold as resistance. Recovering them first would make the next downleg likely to be very damaging.
Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Thursday’s “ineffectual optimism” resolved appropriately, if not more aggressively than needed. Friday’s open slid back through Wednesday’s prior low to end the week probing fresh lows. This market tends to duplicate Friday’s action on Monday mornings, which would undermine any immediate rally effort. But new lows that reverse up Monday afternoon to close above Wednesday’s 3.35 close would be bullish.
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