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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | November 25, 2011 - 3:14 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Friday fulfilled the leg’s 79.40 minimum objective. It wasn’t rejected, but the session ended while still in the process of testing it. Currencies is a market that tends to duplicate Friday’s action Monday morning, so an immediate reversal down is unlikely. But a negative close following fresh highs would be credible for launching a downleg.

Gold Dec (GCZ) Friday’s gap down back to Wednesday’s 1677.00 low was still being attacked into the close, after filling the gap back up to Wednesday’s 1697.00 close. Back under 1677.00 would resume the decline, next targeting 1645.00.

Silver Dec (SIZ) Friday’s gap down to 31.00 ultimately held through the close, as it needed to for maintaining its bottoming potential. But any rally must begin by first closing back above 31.40.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) The corrective rally’s highest calculable objective at 145’14 was met Wednesday. At least its resistance is confirmed by Friday’s gap down to 144’20 that then slid intraday to 143’24. But that does not yet reverse momentum down, or prevent retesting the 145’14 area to form a bigger top first. Closing under 143’12 Monday would be bearish.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Friday’s sideways ranging was itself neither bullish nor bearish. But the burden of proof was on sellers to resume the decline, which they did not do, which is more bullish than bearish. Closing above 98.30 would be credible for launching a rally to at least retest the 102.50-103.00.

Natural Gas Dec (NGZ) Gapping up Friday only to range narrowly was similar in principle to Monday and Wednesday’s singular intraday surges. A very late surge to fresh highs Friday finally broke that mold to officially close above 3.48. This market tends to duplicate Friday’s action on Monday mornings, so the 3.60 may be met quickly.

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Posted in Daily Spot