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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | October 29, 2014 - 3:00 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday”s close above 1.2750 did extend higher Wednesday morning, well ahead of the afternoon”s FOMC news. But that only stretched the rubber band tighter, with the reaction being a plunge to fresh lows testing 1.2611 support, and attacking the 1.2560-1.2585 target.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows tested 1221.00 into Wednesday”s open, trying to resume last Thursday”s close under 1231.00 that signaled the corrective rally had ended. Lower lows in reaction to the FOMC news tested 1212.20. Not recovering Wednesday”s post-close dip Thursday would confirm the decline had resumed.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness ahead of Wednesday”s FOMC policy statement reacted down further under the 17.25-17.40 resistance that had contained Tuesday morning”s bounce. Bouncing ahead of the news reacted down again, but only back to the morning”s low — that outperformance suggests Silver will hold any low while Gold works out its selling pressure.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Weakness slowly developed Wednesday morning ahead of the afternoon”s FOMC policy statement, extending down to a fresh low at 140-12. Its aggressive reaction up recovered back above prior lows to prevent sellers from gaining traction, further suggesting that a downleg is not underway.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Gapping up Wednesday through 81.80 and probing higher tried to compensate for Tuesday”s shallow bounce, and to prove the test of 79.75 had sufficed to form a Double Bottom. Not actually extending higher intraday still undermines whether buyers have retaken control, which closing above 83.33 would signal.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday”s probe above the two prior sessions” highs extended higher Wednesday, high enough to signal a rally leg underway. That”s still a little too late to be assured of reacting favorably to Thursday”s EIA report, but likelier than not to be bullish, which a second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm.

Posted in Daily Spot