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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | December 1, 2011 - 3:44 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Dollar Basket Dec (DXZ) Thursday’s session ranged relatively narrowly as it absorbed Wednesday’s intervention. Closing above 78.50 was narrowly avoided, and so was the assurance that sellers were being absorbed. Closing above 78.65 would still signal momentum reversing up.

Gold Feb (GCG) Narrow ranging around the 1750.00 objective (1744.50 basis Dec) met Wednesday prevented signaling the next higher objective in-play at 1763.00. Not for lack of trying, since a fresh high touched 1758.00, but the close held 1750.00 resistance for a second consecutive session to suggest that this week’s buyers have been absorbed.

Silver Mar (SIH) Thursday’s gap up to a fresh high at 33.35 was retraced quickly, but soon probed by a fresh high up to 33.50. That was also retraced fully, and more so, into negative territory at 32.53. Just holding above 32.30 prevents sellers from gaining traction, and keeps alive potential to recover 33.35 and extend the rally another couple of dollars.

30-year Treasury Dec (USZ) Despite having potential to bounce before resuming the decline under 141’25, Thursday’s gap down avoided refueling sellers. So, the fresh low testing 140’16 must also extend down without delay to continue avoiding a temporary corrective bounce.

Crude Oil Mar (CLH) Wednesday’s retesot of 101.89 had opened the door to a corrective dip, which Thursday exploited down to 99.03. Its intraday recovery to close well back above 100.00 and back abover “lower prior highs” suggests the rally will now resume to fresh highs testing the 103.00 area.

Natural Gas Mar (NGH) Thursday’s gap up back to prior highs was undermined by originating from Wednesday’s “inside day.” Prior highs held as resistance through the day. Wednesday’s inside day, meanwhile, held as support. The pattern is more “ineffectual  optimism” than accumulation, so no trending is yet indicated.

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Posted in Daily Spot