Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight It took more saber-rattling to get there, but Crude Oil finally met its $103 target Tuesday. The pattern has become vulnerable to reversing down sharply… or to extending the rally to truly frightening levels.
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Bouncing off of 80.40 support Friday did not prevent gapping down to 80.20 Tuesday. The balance of the session extended down to the lowest levels in three weeks testing 79.85. There is no buy signal under 80.05, only the vulnerability to the slide extending down to 79.40, which can be avoided by immediately recovering back above 80.05.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Despite Thursday’s intraday recovery not gaining traction above 1.2950, and despite reversing most of Friday’s fresh highs from 1.3000, Tuesday’s open gapped up to a fresh high and extended higher to 1.3085. That essentially retraces last Wednesday’s capitulation sell-off, which is natural resistance. Its recovery would be bullish, because it is more difficult and so less likely.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Bouncing sharply to 1583.00 from last week’s 1524.00 lows did not gain traction. Bouncing further Tuesday almost to 1609.00 came closer, nearly recovering the 1610.50 sell signal that had set the decline in motion. Closing under 1593.50 Wednesday would at least signal the bounce had ended, if not also reverse momentum down. But that may be the last opportunity for either.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s gap up above Friday’s 28.46 high immediately overcame any likelihood for retesting last week’s lows. The rally extended sharply higher to 29.43, where the last downleg originated, probably robbing the pattern of volatility for a couple of days.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s probe above 144-18 had not prevented a reversal down, and probably made it more likely. Sell signals were raised to 144-09. Tuesday’s big drop down to 143-01 proved that buyers had gained no traction. But a close Wednesday back under the original 143-04 bounce limit is still needed to prove that sellers are regaining traction.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The 103.00 was target met Tuesday, and then retested while RSIs diverged negatively. But it was not rejected — not, yet. The setup (technical deterioration at resistance) is not in itself a sell signal. It does, however, require the rally to extend higher uninterrupted to prevent a decline from gaining traction. And extending higher uninterrupted could suddenly challenge the $111 area.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Tuesday’s fresh low at 2.96 was recovered to close in positive territory. That is not the signal for a bottom and recovery which still requires closing above 3.09, but it’s a start.
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