Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Currencies earned the spotlight again, but for behavior that played out entirely overnight. Sunday night’s opens gapped to new trend extremes, which were rejected almost immediately, but probably need to be retested.
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The rally’s 81.80-81.20 target area was probed a little more thoroughly by Sunday night’s gap up. Monday’s regular open had retraced it enough to gap down slightly. The balance of the session was spent in negative territory, with the afternoon holding a brief test of the morning low. This “ineffectual pessimism” makes at least one more fresh high likely, but it could form a durable top if reversed to close negative on the day.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Sunday night’s gap down to new lows was recovered entirely, in time for the regular open to gap up. The balance of the session essentially ranged in positive territory, testing but not exceeding the morning’s high. This “excessive optimism” and the gap outstanding back to Sunday night’s open make a recovery unlikely yet, or unlikely to extend durably higher. But the sustained reaction up from gapping down, and the 1.2673 overnight low’s proximity to the long-awaited 1.2650 target, suggest that sellers may be running out of steam so a bottom can form.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s probe above 1620.00 resistance held through Monday, which pushed back down to test 1610.50 support. Absent a bigger rejection of higher highs, or a bigger break under 1610.50 confirmed under 1598.00, the pattern is not very compelling.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday once again narrowed its range, while still testing the lower-end of a multi-session range. Sellers just aren’t gaining traction for their effort, which suggests that patient buyers are waiting to produce a spike higher. Perhaps that needs a blip-down to fresh lows that stretches the slingshot back, first. Regardless, I would be more interested in buying weakness than selling strength.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Friday’s wild ride continued Monday. The gap down from having held 143-00 resistance touched 142-15 and reversed up. A probe above Friday’s highs touched 143-24. The recovery proved temporary, as the close dipped back under 143-00. Back under 142-12 would start to suggest the downleg had resumed, although it seems a little soon considering Friday’s volatility still being absorbed. Meanwhile, a fresh high could test 144-00.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Despite extending the pullback to test 100.35 Monday, the reaction down from meeting the 103.00 target last week still seems both delayed and sluggish, enough to suspect a retest of 103.00 is likely regardless of the pattern’s ultimate resolution.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Monday’s open did not extend Friday’s test of the 3.09 buy signal. But its gap down didn’t gain traction — it was within Friday’s range, as was the entire session. And the gap back to Friday’s close was left outstanding to help attract price higher, which would be credible for launching a durable rally back above 3.09.
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