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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | January 19, 2012 - 3:46 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Doesn anyone NOT know about the Natty Gas price slide? And, yet, the slide persists. At least 10 consecutive downdays have been interrupted by only 2 non-consecutive, unproductive updays, ready to trigger my (up)crash(down) setup.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s fresh low testing 80.35 must hold as the pullback’s low to avoid the potential of extending down to 79.30 and potentially 78.05.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Gapping up and extending higher Thursday confirmed Wednesday’s breakout above last week’s high, and the signal triggered lower at 1.2750. The rally is targeting a test of the 1.3050 area, with potential to 1.3333.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s inside day under 1665.00 hid the overnight surge to 1670.60. Its retest intraday up to 1684.00 remains likely so long as pullbacks continue to hold 1647.00 support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Fresh highs overnight persisted into Thursday’s open, before pulling back intraday. The open’s gap above prior highs should attract price higher to resume the rally.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The consequence to Wednesday morning’s rejection of 145-10 resistance has been developing quickly. Its intraday drop to 144-05 was followed Thursday by another plunge to 142-12. Closing Friday under 142-05 would signal a new downleg underway targeting 140-02. Bounces meanwhile should hold 143’04 to maintain the decline’s momentum.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Like the two prior sessions’ intraday rally efforts, Thursday’s gap up through 102.00 was retraced back into the prior range. Now closing under 99.75 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 99.40. Until then closing above 103.00 would still launch a new rally leg targeting 111.00.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Despite already having trended down well under prior lows for 1-1/2 weeks, Thursday’s session fell sharply to another new low. The (up)crash(down) setup is stretching the rubber band tightly, either to snap back up sharply, or else to break sharply lower on capitulation.

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Posted in Daily Spot