Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Wild rides in the Energy complex had different effects. While Crude Oil’s strong gap up was being rejected, Natural Gas was already gapping down sharply. Almost any strength in either one Wednesday could extend up sharply.
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap down filled the gap back to Friday’s 79.00 close. The balance of the morning trended back up to Monday’s 79.55 high. Having neutralized the attraction below (the outstanding gap), closing above Monday’s high could have triggered a rally. But holding its resistance through the close does maintain potential to probe one more new low.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s gap up was reversed quickly into negative territory, where the balance of the session ranged narrowly just under prior lows. Back above 1.3105 would target 1.3175, whose recovery would reinstate momentum targeting 1.3333. There is otherwise not currently a sell signal.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Its 1746.00 target was met at Tuesday’s open, which was quickly reversed down sharply to probe negative territory. Positive territory was recovered through the close. Tuesday’s 1742.30 opening gap should still be tested before any durable downleg can begin, so long as 1728.50 holds as support… The April contract trades at a $2 premium to Feb, and I am rolling coverage forward on Wednesday.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s probe of fresh highs was retraced into negative territory under Monday’s lows testing 33.00 support. Closing above 33.60 would trigger a new rally leg targeting 34.60, but almost any delay would extend the pullback to 32.00.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) An overnight dip to 143-28 was recovered through Monday’s open and extended higher to probe the prior high’s 145-10 resistance. The new high close is officially a breakout that can be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Wednesday, but it does not comport to a pattern. Meanwhile, probing 146-00 Wednesday and closing negative would signal momentum reversing back down.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Despite Tuesday’s open gapping up sharply above Monday’s 99.63 high to 101.29, it was all reversed — and then some — back under Monday’s 98.40 low. Monday’s low was still being tested at the close, so sellers did not gain traction for their efforts, even after expending so much energy. But once again there is no bearish reason to further delay extending lower into a downleg. Any delay would again be bullish.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Monday’s retest of the rally’s 2.81 target was premature, and needed one more “scarry” dip to clean out sellers. Tuesday’s open complied by gapping down sharply to 2.55 and extending to 2.47. Now a close above 2.61 would trigger the next rally leg with potential for extending up to 3.03.
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