Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight The Greece debt crisis has passed! (…into its next stage.) The Euro extended last week’s rally, taking Gold along for the ride. Shall this, too, pass?
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The immediate reaction to the Greek debt accord was a gap under prior Friday’s lows. But no follow-through gained traction, and back above 79.45 would signal another rally leg underway to at least retest last week’s highs.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s buyers had gained no traction. Tuesday’s buyers gained no traction either, despite having extended sharply higher in the interim. The gap back to 1.3290 may be filled, and any higher would make fresh highs obligatory (e.g. 1.3333). A pullback otherwise has room down to 1.3265 before considering whether sellers were gaining traction.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Despite being free to resume the decline after Friday’s failed test of 1740.00 resistance, Tuesday’s gap up above 1740.00 extended higher intraday to 1759.50. A new relative high at 1778.00-1780.00 is all but required, with no requirement that its resistance hold, or that it break higher to new highs.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s close was finally under the original sell signal’s 33.40 confirmation, but it was too little too late. Or, that’s what required its invalidation to be so substantial. In either case, Tuesday’s close gapped up above 33.80 prior highs and extended to fresh highs above 34.35. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm a new rally leg underway. Almost any lower close would form a top, subject to its own second consecutive lower close Thursday.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The overnight stock index rally needed no “flight-to-safety,” and the bond gapped down to fresh lows Sunday night that finally tested 141-18 support. That support finally broke lower mid-morning Tuesday to test 141-00. A bounce into the close held a test of 141-18 resistance, to maintain the 140-00 target already in-play.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) More saber-rattling and other territorial challenges helped the rally to extend several dollars through 103.00 to 106.07 essentially confirmed that the 111.00 target is in-play. A second consecutive close above 103.00 Wednesday would allow a pullback to refuel buyers without reversing momentum down.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Friday’s surge through 2.61 was seemingly rejected by Tuesday’s gap down back under its intraday low. But 2.61 was tested throughout the day, holding as support to qualify as a pullback — especially if the rally were to resume Wednesday. Delaying the rally’s resumption for a deeper pullback is unnecessary at this stage if the rally is valid.
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