Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight The Euro’s surge extended the week’s rally, as did Crude Oil’s fresh highs. More of the same is hardly news. Much more relevant is that these markets’ fresh highs tested significant targets/resistance intraday.
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s fresh low required another low Thursday. The downleg wasn’t required to extend any lower Friday, but it did. The open gapped down to the two-week old low at 78.40-78.50 and extended down intraday to test 78.25. Any lower would target 77.45. A bounce meanwhile has room up to 78.55 without yet forming a bottom.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s open gapped up from Thursday’s close above the 1.3333 target, and quickly probed the 1.3425 target. A test of 1.3485 resistance held. Its reaction down has room to 1.3415-1.3435 without signaling that momentum has reversed down, maintaining potential to 1.3575.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s close above 1778.00-1780.00 was not followed Friday by a confirming close above 1783.50, undermining this leg’s potential to new highs at 1811.50-1825.50. The close was still testing 1778.00, so sellers did not regain control.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s breakout attempt was not confirmed Wednesday by a second consecutive higher close. So, Thursday’s consecutive breakout attempt was not likely to be confirmed Friday, either. In fact, price action ranged narrowly, optimistically, at the highs. This is not a sell signal, but it does suggest the rally’s sponsorship is waning.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s recovery above 142-05/142-12 was not rejected Friday. But most of the session’s price action mostly ranged narrowly back to Thursday’s high, and then eked higher to 143-04 resistance. There is still no active parameter.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) I raised the pullback limit intraday in case fresh highs touched 109.35. It was exceeded to almost 110.00, making the new pullback limit 108.00. Fulfilling the rally’s 111.00 target first would raise the pullback limit to 109.35, while also making the pattern vulnerable to a collapse if the rally does not extend sharply higher without delay.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Despite retracing enough of Thursday’s spike down to close back at 2.61, a buy signal still required closing above 2.64. But Friday’s session dropped to fresh lows testing 2.51. Despite the fresh low, the lowest buy signal remains a close above 2.64.
[/pay]
Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…