Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s post-close surge Thursday was retraced overnight. The longstanding 111.00 target was met to within only 50 cents before falling back Friday to retest Wednesday’s 106.50 buy signal. Was it too much, too soon, or has the geopolitical threat passed?
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) While Friday’s gap up to 79.55 was entirely in-line with the week’s bullish pattern, it might have expended more energy than it created. As with Friday, immediate strength at Monday’s open would be credible for extending the rally further toward this leg’s target in the 81.00 area. Otherwise, pullbacks should hold 79.05 as support to avoid momentum reversing down.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s close under 1.3333 was bearish confirmation. Friday’s steep gap down to 1.3200 confirmed as much. But not trending down into the weekend makes it difficult to down out of the weekend, too. Immediate weakness at Monday’s open would next target 1.3155. Otherwise, the week would more likely begin with a corrective bounce before extending to this leg’s next target in the 1.3000 area.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s gap down quickly bottomed for the day, although it did not recover. The session was an “inside day” biased downward, which tends to resolve upward. But a close above 1727.70 is needed to trigger a corrective bounce with potential to 1765.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s gap down interrupted the corrective bounce targeting 36.10. Holding 34.50 as support suggests the bounce will resume, now attracted higher also by the gap back to Thursday’s 35.55 close.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s gap down to fresh lows was rejected by Friday’s gap up above Thursday’s range. The high tested the 143-00 area that was the target of Wednesday’s break lower. The gap left outstanding to Thursday’s 141-30 close still needs to be filled, and the downleg should extend to fresh lows.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s post-close surge to 110.55 was retraced Friday to 105.80. That’s back within the prior 105.50-106.50 range whose test Wednesday produced the upleg. Was the rally to 111.00 cut short? A close under 105.90 would suggest that momentum had reversed down. Closing back above 107.50 would give the rally one more chance.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Thursday’s drop back to prior lows didn’t extend down Friday. Neither was it recovered. Rather, the session’s narrow range suggests a probe of fresh lows will start out the week. Recovering to close positive from probing fresh lows intraday would launch a rally.
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