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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | March 5, 2012 - 3:33 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Monday’s highlight was its broad lowlight — a lack of volatility and fireworks to start the week. The first break attempted Tuesday from extended narrow ranging could be a false break, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Despite bouncing a little Sunday night, Monday’s session essentially ranged narrowly around Friday’s close. Sunday night’s fresh high was not rejected so much as its break higher was delayed.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Despite dipping a little Sunday night, Monday’s session essentially ranged narrowly around Friday’s close. Sunday night’s fresh low was not rejected so much as its break lower was delayed.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) While awaiting a corrective bounce, the 1705.00-1710.00 support was probed again Monday. Sellers were absorbed, and now a close above 1709.00 would trigger a test of 1728.00, whose recovery would have potential for extending further to 1765.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s drop extended further Monday to fresh lows testing 33.75. The corrective bounce targeting 36.00 must be resumed with almost no delay Tuesday to avoid resuming the decline.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) [~1-15 discount to Mar] Friday’s gap up did not extend any higher Monday, which instead remained within Friday’s range. Monday’s low was also supported by the upper-end of the 140-22 / 140-29 range. Breaking back under the range’s lower-end Tuesday would be likely to trend down intraday. There is otherwise no buy signal active.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The reaction down from last week’s attack on 111.00 did not extend down any further Monday. That suggests the selling was isolated to being a correction, which makes a fresh high likely.

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Posted in Daily Spot