Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Thursday duplicated Wednesday’s counter-trend day, by extending Wednesday’s trend. It’s no longer counter-trend if Friday’s price action were to follow-suit… Meanwhile, the long bond bucked the trend again and dipped further. Reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report should settle matters.
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s “pivot reversal” followed-through Thursday with a deeper pullback. In fact, Thursday’s open gapped down into Friday and Monday’s range around 79.40 before drifting lower. Closing above 79.30 Friday would suggest the pullback had ended, and closing above 79.55 would resume the rally next targeting 80.20.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Like the Dollar Index, Wednesday’s “pivot reversal” followed-through Thursday by gapping up. The Euro was more responsive, trading almost exclusively above its Friday and Monday’s range to test 1.3280 resistance. Closing back under 1.3240 would signal the bounce had ended.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s 61.8% retracement of Tuesday’s drop was extended higher Thursday, filling the gap back to Monday’s 1703.00 close. The gap, and its “higher prior lows” held as resistance. Closing back under 1687.00 would now trigger a retest of the lows under 1661.50.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Gapping up Thursday to 34.00 held as resistance, even pushing price back into negative territory temporarily. So long as 33.60 were to hold as support, the bounce could extend higher to test 34.55 and 36.00. But almost any deeper early weakness Friday would be vulnerable to sliding again.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s gap down took an entire minute before also touching 140-27. Its retest at this stage was likely to break lower, and the intraday low did print 140-16. Closing under 140-22 would have signaled the downleg targeting new lows, but the entire afternoon only ranged narrowly around 140-22. Recovering 140-27 would suggest another bounce underway. Reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report is likely to resolve the pattern.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Wednesday’s recovery needed to extend higher into a close above 107.25 Thursday to signal another upleg underway. Only 107.20 was touched. And that’s close enough without also closing above it to be a concern. Now almost any delay in extending higher Friday would be bearish.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Thursday’s opportunity to start forming a bottom extended down to new lows Friday at 2.23. The closing bounce went out testing Wednesday morning’s 2.28 low as resistance. But there is no bottom or reversal signal yet formed.
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