Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Sometimes a correction just can’t end fast enough. A two-day correction among currencies was scheduled to end by Thursday’s close. Retracing any further Friday no long would have qualified as a correction. Instead, Friday’s action alone ultimately retraced all of the two-day correction.
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s “pivot reversal” was not a trend-changer, so Thursday’s follow-through was enough to fulfill the setup. Despite Thursday having gapped down sharply, Friday’s gap up to the 79.55 buy signal, and extended back up to fresh highs for the week. Having come within a dime of the 80.20 target, the next higher objective is 80.85.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Gapping down under its 1.3240 sell signal Friday extended down further intraday to touch the week’s lows at 1.3100. This outperformance compared to the Dollar Index — which probed fresh highs — requires the next session either to bounce, or else to extend the drop. The latter is likelier, since currencies tend to mimic Friday’s behavior on Monday mornings.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Testing 1687.00 and 1703.00 resistance did produce a pullback Friday. It was sizable, but also temporary — its plunge to 1677.00 was recovered as quickly to fresh highs attacking 1715.00. The recovery intersected with 1712.00 resistance, whose break Monday had created so much follow-through. Still testing it into Friday’s close does not equate to recovering it, and almost any initial weakness Monday would be credible for extending down into the week.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday morning’s dip was recovered to fresh highs at 34.45. That’s a dime short of confirming the bounce can extend higher and neutralize unfinished business above at 35.60 and 36.10. But only a close under 33.60 would signal the downleg has resumed.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday afternoon’s narrow ranging around 140-22 support did break lower Friday, probing fresh lows, fully retracing last week’s bounce to 142-10. There was no bullish reason for that bounce, so negative close Monday would confirm its purpose was only to refuel sellers. But not trending down immediately at Monday’s open would be likelier to bounce, first.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s bounce tested 107.20 resistance intraday. Closing above it would have signaled a rally underway to new highs. Trying to extend higher anyway Friday would be difficult to gain traction. Friday did try, only to peak upon testing the 108.15 upper-end of the noise range around 107.20. In fact, the entire intraday gain was retraced. The rally can still extend higher — it must close above Friday’s 108.20 high without delay in order to avoid retesting the week’s low.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Friday’s flat-to-higher ranging avoided an excessive optimism, while also preventing the decline from extending into the weekend. Closing above 2.38 would target 2.51, but there is otherwise no active pattern.
[/pay]
Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…