Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight My mid-day update Friday pointed out the significant Gold and Crude Oil resistance being tested. Their reactions down were all but assured, except not their timing. Monday was an interesting example of how delaying the reaction can soften its effect. Their patterns are still bearish, although an interim bounce is possible — offering a short-entry opportunity.
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s shallow dip from Friday’s 80.10 high down to 79.90 does not suggest that buyers have lost any control, and so 80.85 remains in-play
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday morning did not mimic Friday’s deep drop to 1.3100, and instead ranged narrowly just above Friday’s lows. Price continued firming into the afternoon to range narrowly around 1.3150. Perhaps 1.3200 will also be tested as resistance, but the pattern otherwise remains bearish.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s session had avoided reacting down hard from 1712.00 resistance. But Monday’s open gapped down anyway and the balance of the session remained under pressure, including a test of 1693.00. That was a little too close to 1687.00 support without touching it to consider it the end of selling pressure. Closing above 1712.00 would be bullish, but the pattern remains likelier to resolve down.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s bounce had stopped a dime short of confirming it was extending higher. Monday’s gap down held multiple tests of 33.60 as support to avoid signaling a new downleg underway, which would prevent a bigger bounce from neutralizing any unfinished business above.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Having fully retraced the prior week’s bounce up to 142-10 back down to its 140-02 origin through Friday, NOT trending down immediately Monday would be vulnerable to a bouncing before resuming the drop. Monday’s open did bounce. In fact, it surged to test 140-22/140-29, which ultimately held as resistance. The pattern remains vulnerable to resuming the decline.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s session had avoided reacting down hard from 108.15 resistance. But Monday’s open gapped down anyway and the balance of the session remained under pressure to test 105.50-106.50. A retest of last week’s lows at 104.35-104.50 is in-play, although a detour to 106.85-107.20 is possible first.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Now closing above 2.32 — not just above 2.32 — would initially target 2.51, after Monday’s gap down held a test of Friday’s lows.
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