Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Has the Euro decoupled from S&Ps? It might seem so, since the Euro has fallen these past two sessions while S&Ps have rallied. I’m more interested in intraday correlation, which hasn’t yet lasted two complete sessions. But the next divergence could see the two markets part ways for some time.
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap up to a fresh high above 80.24 was retraced back to 80.00. A bounce was testing 80.24 into the close, and not clearly recovering it, so the rally targeting 80.85 now depends upon extending higher without delay.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s gap down to 1.3050 was retraced almost entirely into the close. But the three-week old decline has yet to probe a new low under 1.2975. The attraction should help to maintain the decline, and just closing under 1.3020 would be likely to accelerate the decline’s pace.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s bounce to 1712.00 support was finally rejected Tuesday. That afternoon had only ranged narrowly, and Monday’s session had only gapped down around 1700.00. Even Tuesday’s session recovered from 1683.30 to retest 1700.00. But the FOMC reaction extended down sharply to probe under last week’s 1663.40 low. The drop’s momentum remains intact so long as 1685.00 is not recovered.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s post-close drop to 33.00 all but confirms that any unfinished business above is not attractive. But a decisive close under 33.60 is still needed to confirm.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The ultimate 138-16 target was attacked to within 10 ticks Tuesday. The rejection of Monday’s test of 140-22/140-29 resistance produced a gap down to test 140-00, which extended through the close. The drop’s momentum remains intact so long as 140-28 holds bounces.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s drop allowed for a corrective bounce to test 107.20. It held Tuesday’s bounce, so now a close under 106.30 would resume the decline targeting fresh lows under 104.00.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Tuesday’s fresh low to 2.20 was rejected by an afternoon surge that ended the day testing 2.32. Closing any higher would have triggered a bigger rally leg targeting 2.51, which remains possible so long as pullbacks now hold 2.27 as support.
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