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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | March 14, 2012 - 3:17 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s 1712.00 resistance had stopped a decline, albeit prematurely. Wednesday’s plunge to 1636.00 suggests that decline has resumed. Meanwhile, Crude Oil is slipping back from its own corrective bounce to retest recent lows. All while the long bond suffers one of its worst days in one of its worst weeks. Paradigm shift, anyone?

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The rally targeting 81.25 basis Jun (80.85 basis Mar) depended upon extending higher without delay. Wednesday’s session did that, testing fresh highs to 81.06. The rally remains intact so long as 80.75 holds as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Closing under 1.3020 would be likely to accelerate the decline’s pace. But its test Wednesday held as support, delaying the next lower objective under 1.2975.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The entire bounce from 1663.00 to 1712.00 was finally retraced after Tuesday’s close. The bounce’s origin was shattered Wednesday on the way down to 1635.80. So long as 1676.00 were to hold bounces, the drop is targeting 1592.00-1605.00.

Silver Apr Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Having rejected any unfinished business above, only a decisive close under 33.60 was preventing a new downleg. Wednesday’s drop to fresh lows at 31.62 all but require an immediate surge to avoid at least retesting 29.55‘s “lower prior highs.”

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The ultimate 138-16 target wasn’t so ultimate. Wednesday’s open gapped down under it from Tuesday’s 139-00 close, and extended lower to 136-12. It could extend further to 134-10 so long as 137-10 is not recovered.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s corrective bounce to test 107.20 resistance reacted down at Wednesday’s open, and eventually tested 105.12. Just closing under 106.30 suggests the probe to fresh lows under 104.00 is underway.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG)) Tuesday afternoon’s surge to 2.32 resistance did not extend higher Wednesday. But neither was it rejected. The pullback held a test of 2.27. The rally is free to resume.

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Posted in Daily Spot